LNP 13.1% vs ON
Incumbent MP
Jon Krause, since 2017. Previously member for Beaudesert 2012-2017.
Geography
South-East Queensland. Scenic Rim covers rural areas to the west of the Gold Coast and to the south of Brisbane. The seat covers most of Scenic Rim Region and southern rural parts of Logan City, including Jimboomba, Rathdowney, Beechmont, Mount Tamborine, Boonah and Aratula.
History
The seat of Beaudesert was created in 1992, and was renamed to Scenic Rim in 2017. At every election the seat has been won by the National Party or its successor the LNP.
Kev Lingard won Beaudesert for the National Party in 1992. Lingard had held the seat of Fassifern since 1983. Lingard had served as Speaker for two short periods, and as a minister for the period of one work, during the final three years of the National government between 1987 and 1989.
Lingard served as Deputy Leader of the National Party from 1992 to 1998, and served as a minister in the Borbidge coalition government from 1996 to 1998.
Lingard retired in 2009. He was succeeded by Aidan McLindon, who ran for the Liberal National Party.
Amongst McLindon’s opponents in 2009 was former One Nation leader Pauline Hanson, who came third with 21% of the vote.
In 2010, McLindon had a falling out with his party when he unsuccessfully challenged Lawrence Springborg for the deputy leadership of the LNP.
In June 2010 McLindon resigned from the LNP. He later founded the Queensland Party. Over the next year, McLindon recruited candidates and built the Queensland Party up to contest the next election.
In August 2011 McLindon proposed a merger of the Queensland Party with Bob Katter’s newly-founded Australian Party. Some members of the Queensland Party rejected the merger, and McLindon switched to Katter’s Australian Party, and he ran for that party in 2012.
McLindon was defeated by LNP candidate Jon Krause. Krause was re-elected in 2015 and 2017.
Candidates
- Luz Stanton (Labor)
- Jon Krause (Liberal National)
- Bradley Fowler (United Australia)
- Deborah Husbands (Informed Medical Options)
- Paul Henselin (One Nation)
- Pietro Agnoletto (Greens)
Assessment
Scenic Rim is a very safe LNP seat.
2017 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jon Krause | Liberal National | 12,878 | 41.0 | -7.5 |
| Rod Smith | One Nation | 8,662 | 27.6 | +19.0 |
| Carolyn Buchan | Labor | 6,748 | 21.5 | -5.7 |
| Shannon Girard | Greens | 3,109 | 9.9 | +1.7 |
| Informal | 1,267 | 3.9 |
2017 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Jon Krause | Liberal National | 19,819 | 63.1 | +3.8 |
| Rod Smith | One Nation | 11,578 | 36.9 | +36.9 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Scenic Rim have been divided into four areas: north-east, north-west, south-east and south-west.
The LNP won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote (against One Nation) in all four areas. The LNP narrowly defeated One Nation with 51% in the north-west while polling over 60% in the other parts of the seat.
Labor came third, with a primary vote ranging from 17% in the south-west to 24.7% in the north-east.
| Voter group | ALP prim | LNP 2CP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-East | 24.7 | 64.1 | 10,801 | 34.4 |
| South-West | 17.0 | 67.0 | 2,961 | 9.4 |
| North-West | 22.0 | 51.0 | 2,936 | 9.4 |
| South-East | 18.7 | 61.9 | 1,553 | 4.9 |
| Pre-poll | 19.3 | 65.3 | 7,227 | 23.0 |
| Other votes | 20.9 | 63.0 | 5,919 | 18.9 |
Election results in Scenic Rim at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (LNP vs One Nation) and Labor primary votes.
Ah 2009 Beaudesert was fun, and then Pauline going to Locker 2015 and then finally federally. I forget how much of a serial candidate she was (not forgetting her 2011 run in NSW). In fact 2012 Beaudesert was also fun… makes me realise a pattern-people generally defect towards KAP (McLindon, Hopper) and defect away from ONP, or sometimes the pattern occurs for both (Anning). It is surprisingly that it wasn’t a KAP hold in 2012 considering the demographics of the electorate, but McLindon didn’t really set the world on fire.
ONP only pushed to second place last election and that was never achieved in Beaudesert at ’98 or ’01. Scenic Rim is basically the old Beaudesert with some touch ups. The interesting thing is the ONP vote held at almost the same level in ’01, so even though 2017 was the peak (i compare 2017 to 1998), I still think the vote will hold for ONP here, thanks for Labors border policy. Another LNP vs ONP contest, but really even if ONP somehow falls and ALP get into the 2CP, there’s only one result…
Prediction (August 2020): LNP Retain
Prediction: LNP Retain
LNP retain
lnp